In a new chapter of a seemingly endless story, this Friday two of the three benchmark currencies in the Cuban informal market have risen in price.
The euro rises from 400 to 402.5 CUP, with an increase of 2.5 pesos, as documented today by elToque in the daily rate that reports price fluctuations of currencies in the informal market.
On the other hand, the average sale price of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) increased by five pesos suddenly. After remaining at 300 pesos for six days, it is now valued at 305 CUP today.
Only the dollar remains stable this May 10th, continuing at 395 CUP per unit, a value it reached the previous day.
Exchange rate today 05/10/2024 - 7:35 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 402.5 CUP.
MLC to CUP exchange rate according to elTOQUE: 305 CUP.
Alternative exchange rate from other platforms:
Exchange rate for the dollar (USD): Buy 391 CUP, Sell 393 CUP.
Exchange rate of the Euro (EUR): Purchase 400 CUP, Sale 400 CUP.
MLC exchange rate: Purchase 301 CUP, Sale 301 CUP.
The informal exchange rate of Cuba presented here is not officially recognized or supported by any financial or governmental entity.
The Cuban peso continues its relentless descent into the abyss
A detailed article published yesterday by elToque details what it describes as a "strong turbulence" experienced by the exchange market in Cuba in April.
"April 2024 marked a high point in the devaluation of the Cuban peso," stated elToque, noting that the escalation in informal exchange rates last month represents the largest monthly depreciation of the Cuban peso so far this year.
In percentage terms, in April the Cuban peso depreciated by more than 13% against the dollar and the euro, and by more than 5% against the MLC.
During April, on three occasions the rate rose by 5 CUP in a single day in relation to the dollar, and twice it did so in relation to the euro.
According to analysts from the Observatory of Currencies and Finance of Cuba (OMFi), the accelerated depreciation of the Cuban peso in April was due to four factors that are part of the economic and financial crisis that the country is experiencing: "the growing inflation, the stagnation of production and exports, the high fiscal deficit, and emigration."
In the first quarter of 2024, the categories of food, transportation, and alcoholic beverages recorded the most significant increases, with inflation rates considerably higher than the general CPI.
Another cause of the devaluation of the Cuban peso would be the sluggish recovery of tourism, that exports of goods have fallen short of expectations, and that the sugarcane harvest continues to fail in stabilizing its production, stresses the mentioned independent media.
According to elToque, the wave of migration would also be an aggravating factor that shows no signs of abating and entails an additional demand for foreign currency in the informal market.
Tendency toward devaluation could persist for the remainder of May
The OMFi models "predict that the depreciation trend could continue in May and forecast that the informal exchange rate could be around 417-427 CUP per dollar, 422-433 CUP per euro, and 316-324 CUP per MLC by the end of the month.
However, they also suggest that a decrease in the rate of peso depreciation is likely in the coming months.
As the informal price of currencies continues to rise in Cuba, inflation also remains unchecked, creating a bleak scenario in which Cubans see their purchasing power diminish day by day.
In the midst of this situation, the Cuban regime appears to be in a stalemate, unable to offer economic solutions to the problem and choosing to blame elToque for the devaluation of the CUP.
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